College Football Gambling: Wisconsin's Andersen wants more from QB | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interesting article about Wisconsin's quarterback situation and the plan of attack under first-year head coach Gary Andersen. Anderson is seeking more mobility from the position but it doesn't appear that Wisky will stray too far from the pro-style, power run game of old. And you wonder if Stave, who does not possess a lot of mobility, will be the type of quarterback Andersen wants going forward. At Utah State the past two years, he started Chuckie Keeton after handing him the reins as a true freshman. Keeton ran for 618 yards and eight touchdowns last year for the Aggies. ?Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Football Betting: Tennessee Vols start over with Butch Jones | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| There's a new regime at Tennessee with former Cincinnati head coach Butch Jones taking over for Derek Dooley. The Vols had plenty of problems last year but most noticeable was its horrific defense which ranked 110th nationally. Those numbers came under the watch of first-year defensive coordinator Sal Sunseri who has since moved on to Florida State. Jones brought with him John Jancek to serve as DC. Jancek spent time at Georgia and Cincinnati. Cincinnati's Defense Under Butch Jones? Tennessee?s Defense Under Derek Dooley? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Teddy CoversChicago WS (Axelrod) at Detroit (Porcello) -230 O/U 9.5? Recommendation: Over The Tigers lineup is on fire right now.? Detroit has hammered out 54 runs in their last eight games, an average of six runs per contest while scoring at least four in every game.? That?s bad news for struggling ChiSox hurler Dylan Axelrod.? Axelrod is winless in his last seven starts, with a 6.23 ERA during that span.? None of his four previous career outings against the Tigers has been the least bit impressive.? No surprise here if the Tigers approach or exceed this total all by themselves tonight. But Detroit?s Rick Porcello is an easy pitcher to fade these days; not a pitcher I?m looking to lay more than 2:1 to support.? Porcello?s last two home starts have been absolutely disastrous: 19 hits and 13 earned runs allowed in just 10.1 innings of work.? The Tigers lost those two games 14-8 and 13-3 as their opponent flew Over the total by themselves both times, a clear indicator of Detroit?s ongoing bullpen concerns.? While the White Sox lineup can?t match the Tigers in terms of overall potency, they did hammer Justin Verlander last night in an eleven run, 23 hit outburst.? Following an extended funk, don?t be shocked to see Chicago?s lineup overachieve again this evening.? On a warm summer night in Detroit with the wind blowing out to center, expect another high scoring affair.? ? Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Teddy Covers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Football Betting Podcast: Big XII Conference Preview | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno. Rob and host Andrew Lange previewed the Big XII and talked Season Over/Under Wins. Today's segments? To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage. ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory. Tags: College Football Rob Veno Big XII | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Rob VenoMinnesota (Correia) at Tampa Bay (Hellickson) O/U 8? Recommendation: Tampa Bay R/L -1.5 +110 Tampa Bay is currently MLB?s speeding locomotive and?its play continues to encourage bettors to jump on. Now winners in 10 of their last 11, it?s important to note the dominance in which they?re winning games. The last nine Rays victories have all been by two or more runs and they?ve outscored their opponents by a combined 48-11. Everything is clicking together right now for Tampa Bay and that especially includes the pitching of Jeremy Hellickson who is 6-1 in his last seven starts. The often inconsistent Hellickson has been on a tear defeating the power offenses of Cleveland, Baltimore, Boston, Toronto and Detroit during this stretch. In those five games, his WHIP was 1.17 and his ERA was 1.80. Add in his dominant victory over the Chicago White Sox last Friday night, and his total line the six wins during this hot streak is: 37 IP, 44 TB allowed, 1 HR, 32K-7BB, 1.08 WHIP and 1.70 ERA. Conversely, the wheels appear to be falling off the Kevin Correia train. After four solid starts, the veteran righty has been raked in his last pair which both resulted in Twins losses. Correia has given up 17 hits, 6 BBs and 9 ER in his last 11 innings averaging 17.8 and 18.0 pitches per inning. That formula is not a good one to face this patient Tampa Bay offense with. Manager Joe Maddon praised his club for their building of multiple run innings during their 10-1 stretch by combining walks and hits. Minnesota (1-9 in their last 10) is combining negatives right now and tonight doesn?t seem to be the time those are going to stop. Rays margin winning ways indicate a run line play at the plus price.? Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Tampa Bay Rays Rob Veno | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB Gambling: New York Mets continue circus schedule | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| On yesterday's Sportsmemo Podcast, Erin Rynning pointed out just how crazy the New York Mets' schedule has been over the last month. Here's a closer look... Starting June 17, the Mets played 11 straight road games, including a doubleheader as well as a make-up game in Colorado on June 27. They had one off day during that stretch. From June 28-July 4, the Mets had a seven-game homestand. Of those seven games, one lasted 13 innings and another 15 innings. Add those up and they basically played an extra game. Immediately following the 15-inning affair against Arizona on July 4, the Mets hopped on a plane for a three-game series in Milwaukee. After their series against the Brewers, with no rest, they bolted to the West Coast where they are currently in the midst of a three-game series in San Francisco. New York wraps up its series against the Giants this afternoon and finally gets an off day but remains on the road with a three-game series at Pittsburg starting Friday. All told, if we include the extra frames, the Mets played 24 games (16 on the road) in 23 days with only one off day. And July baseball being July baseball, they managed to go 14-9.? Tags: MLB New York Mets | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB Handicapping: Recapping Tuesday's games | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Let?s run through the results to update some recent Major League Baseball storylines we?ve been monitoring. Well take the games in market rotation order. If you're new to the site, we generally focus on what happens in the first five innings because there's a shortage of coverage in that particular betting proposition that's growing in popularity. *Washington?s bats cooled off as soon as they stopped facing Milwaukee and San Diego pitching. So, there?s less reason to be enthusiastic about a surge into the playoff picture. The Nats are just two games over .500 with tonight?s full game loss. It?s probably going to take about +18 over .500 to grab a Wildcard (90-72). I usually use the four-max approach when talking about five-inning offense (capping scoring off at a maximum of four runs to diminish the impact of outliers). Look at Washington?s recent 5-inning statline if I leave in the real numbers: 1-1-5-8-0-0-3-8-3-11-0-1. Two 8?s and an 11! But, three shutouts and three one?s. Extreme inconsistency, keyed by the ability to abuse bad pitchers but not hit most everyone else. *Miami?s been better than Atlanta over the last month? in full games believe it or not, 16-15 vs. 15-16 the last 31 games for both. They?ve been pretty even in five-inning battles this week and last. They played in Atlanta last week and went 1-1-1 in first halves with a final score of 8-8. Tonight?s first half was 4-4 after the Marlins eked out a 1-0 win last night. Have the Marlins become the Braves? Well, more like, have both drifted toward generic. *The Reds are in a bad scoring slump, at least in first halves. It gets worse if you adjust for context. The statline itself is pretty ugly at 0-0-4-0-4-1-1-1-4-0-2-0. That?s five shutouts in the last 12 games, with eight games at 0-1. What?s worse is that they got to host the slumping Giants staff, the mediocre Seattle staff, and are now visiting the awful Milwaukee staff. Within the bad statline is a 1 against Zito, a 1 against Harang, a 0 against Saunders, and a 0 against Peralta. Maybe it won?t take 90-72 to win a Wildcard after all. *I guess about the worst single scenario for scoring right now would be something like the Astros offense on the road against Wainwright. They won?t face Kershaw. Another 0 for the Astros in a 7-0 first half loss. That?s six suffered shutouts in the last 10 games, and nine in the last 15. We talked about the home/road splits earlier for Norris of Houston. His road statline is now 0-7-5-7-0-2-3-7 (three 7?s, for a jackpot!). His home statline is 0-1-1-2-0-0-3-0-0-1. So, a TOTAL of EIGHT runs allowed in 10 home starts. Almost that many on the road this evening in St. Louis, which pushed his opposition scored total to 31 in only eight games. *Another great night for the Dodgers, at least in the first half. Their four-max first half scoring over the last dozen games is 3-4-4-4-2-4-2-1-3-4. That?s no shutouts, only one time below par, and five times hitting the max. Nolasco threw a first half shutout in his first Dodgers appearance. We talked last night about the team?s recent dominance in the division. As I make this late night post, that looks to be continuing for another evening. Arizona?s dismal scoring run continues outside of those gifts from Pomeranz and Oswalt last weekend. Their four-max scoring line is 0-0-0-2-0-0-2-1-3-0-0-2-2-4-4-0-0 over the last 17 games. That?s NINE shutouts in the sampling, meaning better than half the time. *Colorado?s road scoring dormancy continued. We?re looking at 0-0-0-2-0 the last five games on this trip. Six shutouts in their last 13 road games. I guess you could say the same thing for the Padres. They did win the first half 1-0. That one fits in nicely at the end of 1-0-0-0-1-2-2-1-3-0-1 the last 11 games. Right at an average and median of exactly 1 run per first half in that stretch. The Dodgers exploded just as the rest of the division got unplugged. *Fun to see the feistiness of the Mets. It might just seem feisty because so many other teams are dormant. Stringing together 2?s can look like a juggernaut in the NL right now. Mets have scored 2 or more in 13 of their last 20 first halves after putting up a 3-spot on Zito in San Francisco. Moving to the American League? *I was going to do a separate post on that horrible Rick Reilly column that ran today on ESPN?s website. But, a few other places already had a go at him. Let me do the short version because it reflects back on our ?be a judge, not a lawyer? advice for analyzing reality. Reilly was a dishonest lawyer with this comment about the power surge this year for Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles: ?But this is a guy who's spent most of his career bouncing from the bushes to the bigs. In fact, in four seasons of facing Triple-A pitching, he hit only 54 home runs. Now, in one major league season, he's on pace to hit 62? That must be some new bat.? He even italicized ?seasons? when that was obviously not the right word. Davis had partial, often limited stays at Triple A over four different summers. It was 31 games one time, 44 games another, 103 during a poor 2010 season when he really lost his bearings, and then 48 games back in 2011. In that last stay he hit 24 home runs in those 48 Triple A games! Davis has always been a hulk. I found this assessment from a different baseball writer. ?Throughout his minor league career, all Davis has done is mash. Despite being young for his level at virtually every stop, Davis has a career minor league line of .302/.357/.595, with 75 homers in 275 games. Last year, Davis got the call to the big leagues and didn?t disappoint, hitting .285/.331/.549 with the Rangers, and smacking 17 homers in only 80 games.? ?Davis is a hulking slugger who swings quite hard, and, not surprisingly, strikes out a lot. However, Davis managed to keep his strikeouts to a reasonable level in the minors (again, despite being young for the league) without sacrificing power. Thus, he was able to hit over .300 in the minors.? ?Furthermore, Davis?s power is completely legitimate, and very rare to find. His uppercut swing produces more fly balls than ground balls ? an excellent sign for a power hitter ? and it?s simply incredibly rare to find a young hitter with such a track record of power.? It was written by Peter Bendix at Fangraphs back in 2008. It?s like Reilly was bending over backwards to mislead, just so he could use his ?that must be some new bat? line. *The Yankees bats have calmed back down. Maybe that six-game winning streak wen to their heads. 1-4-1-0-1 the last five first halves offensively. With both Baltimore and NYY dropping the first two games of their early week series, the AL East is taking a bit of a hit in the ?who?s the best division? race. Boston?s cooled down too. *I?ve talked a few times recently about the inconsistency of Verlander. He managed to show both ends of the spectrum tonight. He threw a five-inning shutout vs. the White Sox before imploding afterward. The White Sox had been dormant with the bats for awhile until that big inning vs. Verlander. Only five first half runs in their last nine games. That?s a 0.6 mark for a week-and-a-half! They used up a few weeks worth of hits in the last four innings tonight. *Toronto suffered its fourth first half shutout in its last six games, as they continue to fall from grace since that great month. *Tampa Bay will move into 2.5 games of first place Boston if they can get some late night help from Seattle. As I type this, Seattle?s already blown an early 5-1 lead though. The Rays keep producing while everyone in the division has taken a few steps back in recent days. A 4-0 first half spanking of the Twinkies tonight even though it was Archer pitching instead of one of their studs. Archer threw his first five-inning shutout in his eighth start. Rays are really positioned well for a second half run. *Wild first half in Seattle. It?s 7-7 in the fourth inning and I?ve got to go to bed. I?m not sure what Boston sees in Webster. He got hit hard again Tuesday. His first half opposition scoring line is now 3-14-7-3-2-7 in six outings unless Seattle adds some more to that last number in the next few minutes. Iwakuma of Seattle has become mortal with 4-3-2-1-7 his last five games pending the top of the fifth. *The latest edition of ?Cole throws 100 mph but doesn?t get a lot of strikeouts? ran tonight in the Pirates/A?s game. Cole only had four strikeouts in seven innings, but it was a solid start as only two A?s scored. That was enough for another Oakland victory over an NL Central team. A?s led 2-1 after five innings and it held up. *Gotta love the Cubs! They cracked whatever mirrors Blanton had been using to lower his ERA, earning a 3-0 first half win on the way to a 7-2 rout. Cubs are now 13-6-5 in their last 24 first halves (only six losses), and are 18-4-3 their last 25 first halves vs. opponents with losing records. That was Wood?s NINTH first half shutout of the season. He?s only allowed more than 2 runs once in 18 starts. Amazing off-the-radar stuff happening in the Windy City. Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB Betting News: Doubront's a better pitcher despite dip in velocity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Boston (Doubront) -130 at Seattle (Harang) O/U 8 It is no secret that Felix Doubront's velocity is significantly down from last season. But this year's version has up until this point been far more effective. Doubront's strikeout rate is still a very respectable 8.51 per 9 and his FIP is a very healthy 3.74. What Doubront has done is avoid the long ball with only eight allowed through 92 innings. According to his catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia Doubront's success has come from far better command of his secondary pitches. "He's got more command with his off-speed stuff," catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia said. "The changeup's a big pitch, 3-2 counts, 3-1 counts on big hitters. He's definitely become more of a complete pitcher, you can't really sit on one pitch. As far as just being able to throw the ball over the plate, get these hitters aggressive and mix, he threw a lot more fastballs than normal. He was able to spot his fastball pretty well." Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Seattle Mariners | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Yo! It's $20 Tuesday at Sportsmemo | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Seattle Mariners | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Florida's anti-online gambling crusade totally backfired | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ladies and gentlemen, we present to you the State of Florida. The language of the law in question?intended to outlaw slot machines and online gambling machines?bans any ?device, machine or system? that requires money, a code, or ?information? that is used to play any game with an unpredictable outcome. ?Let?s say I?m a college student and I go into the library, type in my password to get into a computer, and bet on an online March Madness bracket,? Kaplan says. ?That would directly violate the language of the new law.? Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Seattle Mariners | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WSOP winner will pocket $8.3 million | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Over 6,500 poker players are competing for this year's World Series of Poker Main Event. First place takes home a cool $8.3 million. ?Back then, I knew three poker players,? Moneymaker said at the ceremony. ?Over the last 10 years, I?ve met thousands and thousands of wonderful people in this game. It?s really evolved into something magical, and what you see here today.? ?Tags: Poker | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Football Gambling: Utah Utes primed for more production through the air | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In each of their first two seasons in the PAC-12, the Utah Utes finished dead last in passing yards per game. They also attempted the fewest passes during that span but make no mistake, this was not a very dangerous team through the air. Freshman Travis Wilson started the final seven games of the season and at times showed some ability (28-of-40, 311 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs vs. Arizona). Note that Wilson was 19 years old last year and working with newbie offensive coordinator (and former Utes quarterback) Brian Johnson. This season, Dennis Erickson joins Johnson as co-OC,?which coupled with Wilson's?sophomore season, should provide the Utes with much improved passing numbers.Tags: College Football Utah Utes PAC-12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Canadian Football League Week 2 Betting Recap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by ICCTeams that have won straight up have covered every single game after the first two weeks of the CFL season. The SU winner is a perfect 8-0 ATS so far this season based on the closing number. Here is my recap of Week 2 and quick hitter team-by-team analysis of this week?s action? Montreal Alouettes (1-1 SU/ATS)? Toronto Argonauts (1-1 SU/ATS) ? Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-2 SU/ATS)? Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-1 SU/ATS) Winnipeg somehow managed to survive five turnovers to win in Montreal last week. It was as ugly a performance in a win as any team can have but when you are a team like the Blue Bombers who are coming off a dismal 6-12 season, you won?t critique the win. Winnipeg?s offense is still a concern as quarterback Buck Pierce had trouble making downfield throws and the run game was stifled but because their defense was absolutely dominant, they are still able to win despite scoring just 19 points. The defense is the clear strength of this football team and it wouldn?t be surprising to see them continue to rely on that unit to give them a chance to win games. Betting Winnipeg games Under the total should generate some profits in the short term until the Blue Bombers can show some kind of consistency on offense. Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-0 SU/ATS) I said last week that Saskatchewan was easily the most impressive team in Week 1. Ditto for Week 2. The Roughriders had a very good test in their home opener against last year?s Grey Cup finalists the Calgary Stampeders and Saskatchewan passed the test with flying colors. The game went back and forth in the first half with Calgary leading 21-14 at half but it was all Saskatchewan from that point forward. Quarterback Darian Durant played a heck of a game from start to finish completing 76% of his passes going 26-for-34 for 258 yards and two touchdowns. I mentioned before the season this was a big ?make or break? season and so far he is doing his part to fulfill that prophecy. Kory Sheets has been phenomenal carrying the football for 6.1 yards per rush and the defense has been much improved after that side of the football was rebuilt in the offseason. There is not a lot to be said negatively about this team?yet but they will receive a very tough test in their next game in Week 3 as they travel east to take on the defending Grey Cup champion Toronto Argonauts. Edmonton Eskimos (1-1 SU/ATS) ? Calgary Stampeders (1-1 SU/ATS)? BC Lions (1-1 SU/ATS)? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sports Betting Podcast 7-9-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: MLB Ian Cameron Erin Rynning | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB Handicapping: Los Angeles Dodgers Dominating Division Lately | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Lost amidst all the Puig-headed arguing about how great six-week stats have to be to earn an All-Star invitation?is the message that the Los Angeles Dodgers have been sending lately to the rest of the NL West. After Monday Night?s 6-1 victory in Arizona, the Dodgers are 7-4, with a 59-38 run differential in their last 11 ROAD games in the division. Not 7-4 with a split schedule. Seven of 11 with a big run differential only counting games away from home against the teams they need to beat to reach the playoffs. Strong stuff. The offense has been lethal lately with both Puig and Ramirez putting up monster numbers (they were 5 of 10 combined tonight with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI). Kershaw is the ace of the league. Greinke was back in form tonight. If recently acquired Nolasco from Florida can settle down the back end of the rotation?we could have a rags to riches story that moves very quickly. The Dodgers play two more games in Arizona before hosting Colorado for four games just before the All-Star Break. Their current overall run is 13-3 the last 16 games. Other quickies: *Feldman of Baltimore struggled tonight vs. Texas. He?s another great example of how mediocre AL pitchers can thrive in the National League. He drew raves in a half a season with the Cubs this year. That after a career 4.82 ERA as a starter in the American League. Two games now with the Orioles and his ERA is over 7.00 since they acquired him. One of the unmentioned things about Puig looking like Superman is that he?s doing it in Quadruple A. The mainstream media bends over backwards to not talk about the difference in leagues because they?re marketing product and promoting the sport. *Didn?t have time to dig through a lot of five inning stuff tonight. I was trying to come to a final conclusion about the NY Jets line mystery that I?ve mentioned a couple of times. Talked to a few people about it. No resolution?because it?s just something that can?t make sense if you work through it. The NY Jets can?t be 4-5 points worse than Tampa Bay, and 5 points worse than New England?though that?s what the early Cantor lines were suggesting based on their projected pointspreads. New England can?t be 10 points better than Buffalo, but only 5 points better than the Jets if Buffalo and the Jets look to be relatively evenly matched. There are ramifications for this if you were using Cantor?s numbers to estimate regular season win totals. If the Jets are 4-5 points worse than Tampa Bay, then they?re a 5.5-win team rather than a 6.5 win team (which is the current line for their Regular Season Win totals). If the Jets are only 5 points worse than New England?then either the Jets are more like a 7.5-win team?or the Patriots aren?t as good as their win total is suggesting. Use your own numbers. Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Stat Intelligence | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LVH Sportsbook gears up for footbal season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Head's up for football bettors in the Las Vegas area. According to LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay, College Football Season O/U Wins, Games of the Year, and Conference Title odds while be available July 21 at 10:30 am PT. Also note that registration for LVH's SuperContest is underway. The entry fee is $1,500. Also note a few changes for this year... The 2013 LVH SuperContest will see a couple of changes. We have expanded the cash prize pool to the top 30 and the new breakdown will be listed on the SuperContest Rules page. In addition, the LVH SuperBook has increased the two bonuses. Anyone selecting over 67% or wins the mini-contest (best record over the last 3 weeks of the season) will now win an aggregate cash prize of $15,000. To be eligible for this year?s mini-contest, contestants must sign up before September 2nd. Tags: College Football NFL | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Football Betting: Season O/U Wins - Greek vs. 5Dimes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Below is a chart of College Football Regular Season Over/Under Wins from The Greek and 5Dimes. Most of the numbers are similar with the only difference being a few cents worth of juice. There is however some varying opinion, most notably teams lined a flat 6 wins at the Greek are all lined 5.5 at 5Dimes (Iowa, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia). Also interesting is the price on Alabama. The Greek has the Crimson Tide at 11 wins but heavy juice (-200) towards the under. 5Dimes meanwhile lists Alabama at 11 wins but slightly towards the over (-120). There is also some opinion on USC with The Greek at a flat 9 wins and 5Dimes 9.5ov-125.
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The one where a nun walks into a casino to gamble with a bunch of stolen money | |
| Stories about God's ?workers? stealing from the church till to fuel their gambling addiction never get old. This one involves a 68-year-old nun who pocketed over $100K. Sister Mary Anne Rapp will need to do more than a quick trip to confession to atone for her sins. She was sentenced to 90 days in jail and 100 hours of community service.Tags: College Football | |
College Football Betting: Ted Roof takes over DC duties at Georgia Tech | |
| Article from SI.com on Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Ted Roof, who played linebacker for the Yellow Jackets back in the mid-80's. Roof takes over for Al Groh who spent the last three years running his 3-4 defense. Tech, who returns eight defensive starters, will now switch to a 4-3. This?marks Roof's fifth DC gig over the last six years, the last of which at Penn State. From a points-per-game allowed perspective, Georgia Tech's defense has gotten progressively worse each of the last five seasons. Georgia Tech's PPG allowed (NCAA rank)? | |
College Football Gambling: Strength of schedule rankings | |
| Here?s a link?to strength of schedule rankings for the upcoming college football season. The first is the traditional model of opponent's winning percentage from the previous year. Using that formula Kentucky (103-50, 67.3%) tops the list followed by Arkansas (99-54, 64.7%) and Purdue (96-56, 63.2%). Phil Steele's SOS rankings are slightly different with Florida, Oklahoma, and California in the top three spots.Tags: College Football | |
MLB Gambling News: Which is the Best Division in Baseball? | |
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Another topic fitting for our lawyer/judge conversation of late. Today SB Nation posted an article called ?The NL Central, Baseball?s Best Division.? That seemed odd, considering that: *Cincinnati fans are up in arms about how the Reds were squashed in their recent matchups with Oakland and Texas from the superior American League. The Redlegs went 1-4, getting outclassed on the scoreboard 23-11 *St. Louis fans were licking their own wounds after going 1-5 vs. the same two American League teams. Remember that the Cards were swept at home by the Rangers last weekend, before dropping two of three to the A?s this weekend. I mean?NOW?s the time you want to make the case that the NL Central is the best in baseball?! The American League has established superiority for several years now. Both the Reds and Cards just flunked their toughest litmus tests of the year against the superior league. In the meantime, the AL East has established itself as a true power. Everyone?s right around .500 or better (no weak spots), and the last place team has actually been one of the best in baseball over the past month. They?ve been playing each other lately, which makes it harder to see the AL East as dominant overall. But?that clearly seems like the strongest group top to bottom. The American League is the best league. The East is its best division. I tweeted back my disagreement with the premise when SB Nation posted its link. It became clear from a subsequent twitter conversation with the author that it was another of those web articles too common at SBN and Grantland where the headline writer significantly overstates what the author is saying because wild overstatements get hit counts?then the poor author has to say ?I never said that? even though it?s in his article?s headline. The author actually said in the article: ?Halfway through the season, there's a very good case to be made that the best baseball in all of baseball is being played in the National League Central.? Again, the timing is odd since St. Louis and Cincinnati just got spanked by the superior league. But, you can?t blame an author for a bad headline. Did SBN post a factual error in their headline? Or, is the NL Central actually the best division in baseball? Let?s take a crack at reaching a verdict after studying various evidence. *At the time the article was posted, here were the composite divisional win differentials for all six MLB groups. Since every divisional game counts as a win for one team and a loss for another, win differentials show you how that division is performing against outsiders. AL East +33 NL Central +22 NL West -8 AL West -11 AL Central -12 NL East -24 For several years now, the American League has been the superior of the two leagues. So, if there are any hidden kickers in there, they would favor the AL East in this debate because of schedule strength. Perhaps the leagues have pulled even now. I don?t know of anyone who believes the NL is now superior. For that one attempt at divining an answer, we get a pretty clear verdict for the AL East. *What if we go to the SuperLeague approach and only count what teams are doing against opponents who are at .500 or better (easy to look up daily on the expanded standings pages at Baseball-Reference). At the time the article was posted, we had? AL EAST VS. .500 OR BETTER Baltimore 28-18 Boston 26-19 Tampa Bay 26-26 NY Yankees 21-26 Toronto 27-32 That?s seven games over .500 for the division?which is hard to do because most divisions have one or two lousy teams who get rocked in this stat. Last place Toronto is still doing much better than third place Cincinnati over in the NL Central (note that Toronto?s win today over Detroit puts them back at .500, which means what those other teams did vs. Toronto will be in the statline if you go to baseball-reference on Tuesday?games vs. Toronto weren?t being counted at the time the article was posted because Toronto was a game below .500). ? Pittsburgh 18-14 St. Louis 15-15 Cincinnati 15-26 Chicago Cubs 13-27 Milwaukee 11-29 The games the Pirates/Cards/Reds play against each other split out because a win for one is a loss for another. The division as a whole is 39 games below .500 in this sampling devoted only to the upper half of the sport. Another reminder that the Reds have been horrible vs. quality this year. The Cards are only 50/50 here. Given what we know about the recent difference between leagues, and what we?ve learned over the years on these pages about the illusions that can be created by teams who dominate soft schedules, I?m going to be solidly in the corner of the AL East. And, to me?this is a verdict from being a judge rather than a lawyer lobbying for something because those categories have always guided me in the right direction. Unbiased input I trust. But, maybe I?m biased with how I choose categories. Let?s see how a few other sources are ranking the teams. TEAMRANKINGS.COM: OVERALL POWER RANKING AL East: Boston (1), Baltimore (4), Tampa Bay (7), Toronto (12), NYY (13) NL Central: Pittsburgh (2), St. Louis (3), Cincinnati (11), Cubs (24), Milwaukee (26) ?Averages: AL East 7.4, NL Central 13.2 Medians: AL East 7, NL Central 11 The Cubs and Brewers are such stragglers that it?s going to be tough to get the Central up to ?best in baseball? by any objective measure. You see those, and the SBN headline really jumps out as nonsensical. ED FENG, THE POWER RANK AL East: Boston (1), Baltimore (4), Tampa Bay (8), Toronto (11), NY Yankees (16) NL Central: St. Louis (2), Pittsburgh (10), Cincinnati (12), Cubs (20), Milwaukee (26) Averages: AL East 8.0, NL Central 14.0 Medians: AL East 8, NL Central 12 Don?t think I buy that Pittsburgh is down at #10, even if there are reasons for skepticism about their current record. But, it?s not that big a deal in the big picture in terms of influencing the conclusions we?d draw from those five-team numbers. JOHAN KERI, GRANTLAND AL East: Boston (1), Baltimore (8), Tampa Bay (10), NY Yankees (14), Toronto (15) NL Central: St. Louis (2), Pittsburgh (3), Cincinnati (7), Cubs (23), Milwaukee (28) Averages: AL East 9.6, NL Central 12.7 Medians: NL Central 7, AL East 10 We get a win for the Central in the median category. Apparently Keri isn?t bothered by Cincinnati?s very poor record this year vs. teams at .500 or better. Still, the average goes to the East. To me?the preponderance of evidence favors the AL East. You can really ONLY make the case for the NL Central if you don?t hold Cincinnati?s poor performances vs. quality against them?AND use medians to eliminate the drag that the Cubs and Brewers cause. A stretch. There are other ways to look at the problem. I can?t say I?ve come up with one that would make the NL Central look any better. Bill James would answer some questions of this type (greatest brother combinations, greatest baseball families) with an approach that would single count the best guy, double count the second best guy, triple count the third best guy?and so on. That way, you wouldn?t get Babe Ruth and his adopted sister as ?best baseball siblings? just because Babe Ruth was so great. The approach let you marvel at the DiMaggio brothers because even the third best got a lot accomplished. Or, you could appreciate how many different Boone?s mattered over time. Use that for this debate and it?s a squash for the AL East because the Yanks and Jays re so much better than the Cubs and Brewers. That would actually magnify the impact of the bottom of the division and make a much stronger case for the AL East. What?s your verdict? You know mine. One of the great things about twitter is that you can follow various publications for alerts when articles go up. One of the worst things about twitter is that you?re bombarded by blowhard headlines that are often outright false, and don?t capture what the author was actually saying. Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence | |
Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Football Season O/U Wins | |
| Submitted by Teddy CoversThe college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.? We?ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore.? The NFL season win market wasn?t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July. But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season.?? The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month.? The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013.? Here in Vegas, we?re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals. College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL.? You don?t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a rare case.? Of the 16 games set for Week 1 of the regular season, only one (Baltimore at Denver on the Thursday Night national TV opener) is lined at higher than -7.????? The old adage about any NFL team being able to beat any other team on ?any given Sunday? has more than a little bit of truth to it.? Arizona finished 5-11 last year, but they won straight up at New England.? The Eagles finished 4-12, but one of those wins came against the Super Bowl champion Ravens.? I could list a dozen more major upsets from last year alone. In college, the best teams are routinely four, five or six touchdown favorites against the weaker foes on their schedule.? Even in conference play, it?s not unusual to see a top notch squad like Alabama to be favored in those pointspread ranges.? The Crimson Tide were 30+ point favorites against an Ole Miss team that won a bowl game by three touchdowns over Pitt last December.? They were road favorites of 20 points or higher against the likes of Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas. Alabama probably isn?t the best example to use to illustrate my points, because it?s not just ?ultra-elite? teams like Nick Saban?s squad that are routinely favored in those type of pointspread ranges.? Florida State was a two TD favorite or higher in 13 of their 14 games last year.? Oregon laid -20 or higher nine times. Boise State has been 20+ point favorites in 29 of their last 43 regular season games. What does all of this pointspread info tell us about season win totals?? Simple ? there?s a lot less wiggle room for college football season win totals than there is compared to the NFL.? When we look at the teams near the top or the bottom of the college football world, more than half of their games are near guaranteed wins or losses from a straight up perspective.? Oregon is not going to lose SU at home to Cal, Washington State or Utah.? Nicholls State isn?t going to beat them once in 100 hypothetical matchups, and road games at Virginia or Colorado aren?t really tests.? Before the season starts ? before fall camp starts ? you can assume a minimum of six wins for the Ducks, even in a near worst case scenario.? It?s a similar story with Alabama, or Florida State or Boise, to stick with the team examples listed above. As a result, the standard NFL conversion formula (a half win worth approximately 50 cents of juice) doesn?t apply to the college football world.? In NCAA win total action, a half win difference between sportsbooks can be routinely priced as being worth a full dollar or more in extra vig.? And professional bettors have no hesitancy laying a full dollar?s worth of extra juice to bet a top team Over 10 wins instead of Over 10.5, for example.? Getting that ?push protection? is worth the cost! As the college football season win marketplace starts to mature over the next few weeks, we?ll see the lack of wiggle room for the books on full display, with bettors taking advantage of any arbitrage opportunities available as soon as they show up.? From a return-on-investment perspective, getting the best of those half win differentials between books makes an enormous difference in the professional bettor?s bottom line. I?ve been doing my college football homework in recent weeks, prepping for marketplace maturity.? Here are two Overs and two Unders that caught my eye from the offshore openers at 5Dimes.? The juice is current as of early Monday morning on July 8th. Arkansas Over 5.5 wins (-140) ? Indiana Over 5.5 wins (-210)? UNLV Under 4.5 wins (-175)? West Virginia Under 5.5 wins (+175)? Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers Tags: College Football Teddy Covers | |
Sports Betting Podcast 7-8-2013 with Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers | |
| Tags: MLB College Football Rob Veno Teddy Covers | |
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